JCPOA News

Summary - These negotiations have been ongoing for 11 months. If you monitor the negotiators tweets there was an expectation prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for a finalized deal before the end of February. International sanctions against Russia has dramatically changed the diplomatic calculus for these discussions. I originally was going to focus a post on this issue two weeks ago but I was lazy.¹ Since then, all parties have gotten back to the table and it looks like Russia’s demands and fears have been appeased. Iran recently released two British-Iranian dual citizens after a British payment of $530 million it has owed Iran for decades. Apparently the United States might drop the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s terrorist designation.² Most most open diplomatic thing I’ve seen on Twitter in some time and can be seen right below.

Dear Francois, E3 are ready to sign. Not in a few weeks, days nor hours - but right now. Have been ready since we left Vienna March 4, our job done. Time to close. @Bagheri_Kani @Rob_Malley #jcpoa #ViennaTalks pic.twitter.com/GOGMKsKeK9

— Philippe Errera (@PhilippeErrera) March 17, 2022

Phillppe Errera is a French Diplomat directly contributing to the Vienna Talks. (Current Title: Director-General for Political Affairs and Security at the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. Began his career in French Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1996.)

See here for another weekly summary by USIP Iran Primer.

Sanctions

From what I understand, part of the JCPOA renegotiations require Russia to take Iran’s enriched uranium above the 20% level. That alone started the problem with how it could proceed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tack on the fact that crude oil is a significant bargaining element for Iran now and this explains why things were delayed. All things considered some sanctions will be skirted, regardless.³

Short Aside on Hostage Release

There were two hostages released (British-Iranian detainees, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori.)

A third detainee, Morad Tahbaz, who holds Iranian, American and British nationalities, was released from prison on furlough.

Nazanin has received the most media coverage and I’m guessing this is due to her affiliation with the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Short aside on the other two. Were these two idividuals spying for the Mossad and CIA? Often times in diplomatic spats known spies get outed and removed from their embassy posting. The hard thing in OSINT is to understand if these spy claims are true or false.

Ashoori’s charges were “co-operating with a hostile state against the Islamic republic” and “obtaining illicit funds” amounting to €33,000. From FT

“Ashouri, who previously lived in southeast London with his family, was detained in August 2017 and was sentenced to 10 years in prison for cooperating with Israel’s spy agency Mossad and two years for obtaining 33,000 euros in “illicit funds” nearly a year later.” From Tehran Times

Noticabley on most media publications Nazanin’s pictures are most prominent while Ashoori (not sure on spelling) is much less featured and seems more like an afterthought. Might counter this narrative from a CNN report

But anytime some high profile hostage negotiation takes place I always wonder who is a spy and who is actually an innocent detainee. I honestly have no great way of knowing, but how a release is reported might shed additional light on their spy status.

Done Deal?

Media Outlets are already stating the return to JCPOA is upon us.⁴

But like anything Iran countered an imminent timeline of 48 hours so maybe sometime later this week instead of on Monday.

Nour news from #Iran: no developments have occurred and #Tehran is still waiting #Washington's political decision.#ViennaTalks

— Hazem Al Kallass حازم كلّاس (@Hazem_Kallass) March 19, 2022

Middle East News

Other siginificant events I find important these past couple weeks.

United Arab Emirates break close ties with United States?

There are a couple elements to this question.

1. The UAE abstained from a UN vote condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2. The UAE snubbed a call from US President Biden on 8 March.
3. And just two days ago on Friday. US Secretary of State Blinken canceled a scheduled trip to Saudi and UAE. Source 1, Source 2
4. UAE welcomes Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Also the date is significant because it was on the 11th anniversary of the democratic uprising.

There are other elements to why I am asking this question, but these are the most recent. It seems to be a siginficant rift because instead UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is the delegate tasked with asking OPEC to increase supply. Compare this with Saudi Aramco’s 2021 profits and it makes sense why OPEC+ remains strong.

““Aramco’s net income increased by 124 percent to $110bn in 2021, compared to $49bn in 2020,” the company said in a statement.” ⁵

Update to Food Crisis

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/lebanon-and-syria-scramble-secure-food-after-ukraine-war

ISIS, Daesh new leader reporting problem

After Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was killed in an explosion on 3 February 2022 known as (‘Hajji Abdullah/Hajji Abdullah Qardash’- a deputy of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi whose real name was Amir Muhammad Sa’id Abd al-Rahman (Salbi al-Mawla))⁶, the Islamic State named Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al Qurashi the new commander.⁷

[editorial in the Islamic State’s al-Naba' newsletter] - “(ii) Contrary to what some speculated, the Islamic State did not delay in finding and appointing a successor. In fact, the successor was already in place by the end of the Friday after Abu Ibrahim was killed (i.e. he was killed on 3 February 2022- a Thursday- and so by the end of 4 February 2022 the successor had been appointed with allegiance given to him by the leadership, following which the diwans of the soldiers and media gave allegiance, and then the units in the rest of the wilayas). The only thing that was delayed was the public announcement, which took into account the field situation."⁸

There was a controversy by Reuters and others on the identity of this individual.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-new-islamic-state-leader-is-brother-slain-caliph-baghdadi-sources-2022-03-11/

According to two Iraqi security officials and a Western security official his real name is real name is Juma Awad al-Badri, he is Iraqi and Baghdadi’s brother. I saw reports questioning the validity of Reuters' sources and I would caution waiting until more is reported about the new leader.

Is the new IS caliph Jum’a ‘Awad al-Badri as “two Iraqi security officials and one Western security source” allege here? Or is it the younger Bashar Khatab al-Sumayda’i as ⁦@OALD24⁩, ⁦@hxhassan⁩ & others have reported? Does anyone really know? https://t.co/wwAUyHp44Q

— Cole Bunzel (@colebunzel) March 11, 2022

Ukraine Map

Found an interesting map by the UK Ministry of Defence that OSINT Editor stitched together.

Source - https://www.osinteditor.com/general/ukraine-war-uk-defence-intelligence-daily-maps/

Russian Gas Graphic

Source - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/johnson-meets-saudi-uae-leaders-as-ukraine-war-roils-oil-prices

Drones and Air Power

An article about drone proliferation in the Middle East might be one of the best I’ve come across recently.⁶ This might not be a great suprise to anyone following these developments, but one of the most succinct and correct analysis on this trend.

In Short

• Ongoing advancement in drone mimicks the 1960-70s period of ballistic missle proliferation
• Drones have not changed any country’s strategy, only added another tool. Quote, “In other words, while the drones have exacerbated the regional arms race, they have not changed the nature of the conflicts.”

Another article by International Crisis Group on Turkey’s use of air power against the PKK.⁴

I found this helpful in understanding the intra-Kurdish factions. Mandıracı states that the KDP and Ankara have grown their economic ties over the past few years.

That’s the main nugget of information I gleaned from this article. Aside from that my knowledge of the PKK and various Kurdish political factions is extremely limited. Doubtless it will make more sense to someone more familiar with ongoing events.