JCPOA News

I keep reading that we’re reaching the end of the utility of JCPOA if nothing can be agreed upon soon. Unfortunately this has been repeated for months and these discussions continue into perpetuity. At some point this will all come to a head but I estimate we are a few weeks out until we will know for sure if an interim agreement can be reached.

“In what was interpreted as a gesture to the final phase of talks, Washington earlier this week restored sanctions waivers for Iran that would allow international nuclear co-operation projects."[^1]

See also - https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/iranian-president-says-tehran-never-has-hope-vienna-nuclear-talks

Current Status of Negotiations

See the weekly roundup by USIP’s Iran Primer to start with.

I would say this final stretch is now upon us but I really do not know what that means. I believe that if enough media publications keep reporting similar headlines it will eventually come true.

The biggest obstacle though to an agreement seems to now be affairs in Ukraine. Supposedly, Russia is set to invade this weekend or this is a very distinct possibility. Most countries have pulled back their diplomatic personnel, and there have been additional troop movements by NATO to hopefully deter any Russian troop movements, as well as a sanctions package put together. This Ukrainian issue has been ongoing as well for a few months. If anything does happen, then this will somehow affect the continued 8th round of negotiations. It could either speed it up or delay it. I’m quite dumb on that issue and have no current assessment on this. Seems like mumbo jumbo to me, but just the sheer amount of noise from open sources talking about this has given me some pause.

Quincy Talk

Last week there was an interesting think tank talk by the Quincy Institute by folks who follow this issue more closely than I. Biggest takeaway from this was the expectation of some interim deal being reached.

• Sanctions shrunk middle class and expanded state IRGC business efforts. (Seems similar to MIC of Egypt, see Yezid Sayigh’s recent publication.)

• Export/Import Business and Smuggling Increased (No surprise)

• Iranian investment in Turkish real estate increased

• Many intra hardliner camps. Often disagreements between the two. Unified against Rouhani but now a little fragmented.

Risk of Military Conflict

A. Taking into account increased role of Iranian allies. Iranian allies have increased their strategic capabilities since 2013 and can better compete in asymmetrical conflict with US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. (Better military power results in a more powerful deterrence for Iran')

B. How might this play out, what do hardliners think? (I missed the answer to this question.)

Yemen Things

Recently I came across three sources pertaining to some update on the ongoing effort by the Saudi/UAE coalition to combat the Houthi Movement. Precursor (I do not closely follow this complex issue but I do look for new insights from time to time.)

Marib update - https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/fighting-eases-yemens-marib

1. The most useful would have to be the Sana’a Center article on a historical analysis of Yemen’s political parties.¹ This looks to be most authoritative.
2. Interesting Congressional Research Service report of US Congress’s role in Yemen.² I find this interesting for its summary of President Biden’s role over the past year. It summarizes Biden’s policy efforts and I think its unique only in that respect. Looking at its sourcing leaves something to be desired for understanding current events. Its citations and sources though leave something to be desired. No use of Sana’a Center as a source.
3. And the shortest of the three which provides a more current timeline of recent events by Al Jazeera.³ Some nice maps and graphs to look at too.

Economic link of the UAE

https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/2/10/how-the-uae-will-underwrite-the-iran-deals-success

I also found that article interesting from my recent foray into some of the macro policies affecting current negotiations. It gives helpful background on the UAE’s trade history with Iran throughout the JCPOA. Basically it’s in both Iran the UAE’s interest for a deal with strong prospects for economic growth and trade between the two countries. The UAE would be Iran’s link to the global economy and trade between Iran and Europe wouldn’t be as relevant. Interesting take and holds some truth.

Political Gridlock in Iraq

Well unfortunately Iraq’s parliamentary system failed to vote for a president due to numerous boycotts for the 07 February vote. That forced an unknown delay for voting on Iraq’s new president that we will continue to wait for. After the president is elected, then there is 15 days to elect a prime minister and form a government. The preferred Kurdish candidate is the KDP’s nomination for Hoshyar Zebari. Corruption charges were brought against him and a court case is set to finalize his candidacy status on Sunday.

See this first. “Iraq turmoil deepens as presidential vote postponed indefinitely by parliament”

Monday’s postponement exacerbates Iraq’s political troubles because it is the task of the president, within 15 days of being elected, to formally name a prime minister from the largest bloc in parliament.

The prime minister, a Shiite Muslim according to political tradition, then has a month to form his government.

Sadr’s bloc claims it controls enough seats for a “national majority government”.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/iraqs-parliament-postpone-presidential-vote

See this to start by LSE and the updated analysis of the post vote analysis by Chatham House. See also this Atlantic Council article too for further clarification.

I’m learning this as I go so if I misrepresent anything I apologize and would say consult these sources instead. I just compiled them.

Tunisia’s President

Aside from the large debt Tunisia holds from the IMF I don’t closely follow current events. I do link stories I find interesting, but when it comes to understanding why President Kais Saied is doing what he’s doing I’m clueless. The most recent event was dissolving the national judiciary body.⁴ This is reported in Western sources as a further consolidation of power by Saied. I just found an interesting source that details Saied’s grassroots movement and how it developed over the years.⁵ That article provides helpful context for Tunisia’s recent political developments after 2011, and Saied’s rise to power. I still have a very minimal grasp of things but coup or not Saied is quite intelligent and resonates with many Tunisians. I wonder if the “state of emergency” will remain permanent like many are fearful for.

Also of note the politicization of Tunisia’s military has been an important factor in upholding Saied’s decrees.

Also see this upcoming interview on 15 February for more deets.

Turkey’s Credit Rating Downgraded by Fitch

As Erdogan continues to go his own way regarding economic theory, its international credit rating was downgraded from BB- to B+ with a negative outlook.

Wrap Up

Well that’s all for now, sorry there is less analysis and just more compiling on this post. Next week will be an important one either way I guess.