Update for US/Iranian Diplomacy

Hmm, what’s been going on over the past month or so?

Well, for the discussions not much has progressed over a continued belief of cautious optimism. There have been five rounds of discussions and this week there is a break before talks resume again.

Overall stance of both parties has not changed. US- Iran remove nuclear stockpile before sanctions lifted. Iran- US remove sanctions and then rejoin JCPOA.

There are a few notable events leading to this state of affairs.

1. Palestine/Israel events. For an comprehensive introduction on this recent instance with some historical context see here. Haaretz has a summary of the actual events. 11 Days, 4,340 Rockets and 261 Dead: The Israel-Gaza Fighting in Numbers. According to UN humanitarian office, at least 129 out of 248 people killed in Gaza were civilians and 1,042 housing and commercial units were severely damaged. (There are many other accounts to read on these events for a better understanding of a day by day account as well as the broader implications.) The importance for the Vienna talks was this: Biden was trying to sidestep the Palestine/Israel issues while focusing solely on Iranian nuclear diplomacy. This event portrays this as possibly untenable approach but no definitive stance has been decided yet.
2. Things stalled long enough that domestic elections in Iran to become a serious consideration for future negotiations. See here for brief overview and also here for individual candidates. Elections will take place 18 June. There is a review for possibly including some of the rejected candidates. The number currently stands at 7.
3. Israeli elections which have stagnated for seemingly for forever with Netanyahu still holding onto power seems to have finally broken. A coalition to oust Netanyahu with Naftali Bennet as the new prime minister is days away from occurring. (uncertain on what this shakeup does to Israeli domestics politics thus influencing global events)

Random international news.

Iran’s largest naval vessel IRIS Kharg recently caught fire and sank. There has been a weird build up of naval events between the US, Israel, and Iran over the past few years. (Unknown importance on this trend)

IAEA has not had access to recordings of facilities since February.

IAEA still has unknown explanation of two nuclear sites in Iran first found in Feburary 2019.

02 June 2021-Oil refinery fire near Tehran.

02 June 2021- Iran lost voting privileges this year for UN. Owes about $16 million to regain voting rights.

Hopefully this puts things in some context. Lots has gone on and I have not been writing about much of these events. Apologies there but hopefully this puts things more on track.